Onward’s new alternative pathway for the power system marks a significant shift in centre-right thinking over the past five years. In this short paper, Regen director Johnny Gowdy argues that its proposed return to greater gas dependence isn't a credible energy strategy – but that the affordability challenge it raises cannot simply be dismissed.
Last month, centre-right think tank Onward published Firm Foundations: The case for cheap and reliable power, backed by the then-Conservative shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho. Its alternative policy pathway would dramatically change the direction of UK energy policy, with much greater use of gas, less renewable generation and a retreat from current climate targets.
It marks a radical shift from previous centre-right thinking, including previous Onward reports – Renewed Importance: How investing in renewables cuts energy bills, Taking the Temperature and Vote Blue, Stay Green – which strongly argued in favour of net zero and renewable energy. A shift now reflected in Conservative Party doctrine that its MPs must reject the Climate Change Act 2019.
In this paper, we examine some of the assumptions underpinning the Firm Foundations analysis, including its expectations for future gas prices, new gas and nuclear generation, electrification and the wider costs of continued reliance on imported fossil fuels.
The alternative pathway is not credible, but Firm Foundations does shine a light on a challenge that supporters of clean power need to take seriously. Electricity affordability will be central to the political argument over the energy transition, and rising network and system costs cannot be treated as someone else’s problem.
With pressure coming from all sides of the energy policy debate, the government needs to get on the front foot and demonstrate exactly how clean power will deliver for the consumer, which means getting off gas as quickly as possible, accelerating the pace of electrification across the economy, spreading the cost of levies and new infrastructure fairly, and tackling the drivers of rising system costs, including network costs and balancing.
Download the paper to read the full analysis.
