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Since 2016 Regen has worked with the Welsh government to track how energy is generated and used across Wales. This year’s edition brings generation and use together into one report for the first time, offering a clearer picture of the transition. Here we reflect on what nearly a decade of tracking Wales’s energy system tells us – and why this consistent evidence base matters as the transition enters its next phase.
Click here for the Welsh language version.
The first Energy Generation in Wales report, found that Wales generated 6.9 TWh of renewable electricity in 2016 – equivalent to 43% of electricity consumption. Renewable deployment was accelerating, but fossil fuels still dominated overall generation.
By 2024 – the most recent data available – renewable generation had climbed to 7.9 TWh, equivalent to 54% of consumption. Overall electricity generation had dropped by more than half, as a result of fossil fuel generation falling sharply from 39.1 TWh to 13.8 TWh, although it still accounted for the majority of total output.
Over that period, Wales has seen rapid growth in solar PV and onshore wind, added substantial storage capacity, and begun to accelerate heat pump deployment.
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The first Energy Use in Wales report was published in 2018, and thereafter every two years. In that time, annual energy consumption has changed significantly, with a big reduction in the proportion of energy used in heat. This reduction was achieved largely from non-domestic sources such as industrial, commercial and public sector. There has also been some reduction in electricity use, again largely from non-domestic sources.
Total energy consumption has reduced by 7.3 TWh since the first energy use report – however, projections suggest a significant increase is likely as electrification intensifies.
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Looking back across the series, three points stand out...
Energy targets do not stand still. In 2017, the Welsh government set a target for renewable electricity generation to meet 70% of annual electricity consumption by 2030. That ambition has since shifted to renewable generation equivalent to 100% of annual consumption by 2035. The local ownership goal has also been extended – from 1 GW by 2030 to 1.5 GW by 2035 –reflecting strong early progress.
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Alongside this, updated Climate Change Committee pathways have revised projected electricity demand to 2035. This is expected to rise significantly as heat, transport and industry electrify. As a result, the main progress metric of renewable generation – currently representing 54% of electricity consumption – only tells part of the story. Against projected 2035 demand, the gap to the 100% target is substantially larger.
The goalposts move – sometimes because ambition increases, sometimes because pathways are updated, and sometimes because progress is faster than anticipated. A consistent analytical framework makes those shifts visible and understandable.
Earlier editions focused primarily on installed capacity and generation trends. That reflected the central policy question at the time: how quickly are renewables being deployed? Today, the challenge is more systemic. Bringing generation and use together into a single report reflects this shift.
The most recent data shows that total energy use stood at 83.2 TWh. Of this, only 13 TWh was electricity, with the remaining consumption due primarily to heat, followed by transport and industry.
Wales did generate 22 TWh of electricity in 2024, with renewables accounting for 7.9 TWh. Therefore, while demonstrable progress is being made towards renewable electricity generation targets, there remains a large gap between this and current overall energy use.
Understanding how electricity, heat and transport interact – particularly as policy support for the electrification of heat and transport grows – is increasingly important. In addition, how regional patterns of generation and consumption differ could influence infrastructure planning and policy design. A whole-system approach enables us to consider all opportunities for decarbonising the energy system.
Across nearly a decade, the structure of these reports has remained intentionally stable. Generation and consumption are broken down by technology and region. Progress is assessed against clearly stated targets. Local ownership is tracked in a comparable way.
That consistency allows change to be seen clearly:
In a political environment where priorities can shift quickly, a stable evidence base provides continuity. It allows policymakers, industry and communities to understand not only where Wales stands today, but how the trajectory has changed over time.
Wales has made progress in renewable deployment and local ownership since 2016 – tracking and understanding the underlying factors in these trends is vital for future policy, infrastructure and markets development.
Over the last decade, Regen has produced 12 reports for the Welsh government exploring how energy is both used and generated. The majority of these reports (the eight highlighted below) were focused on exploring annual energy generation data, with an additional three reports produced focusing on energy use. This year’s report marks the first time both of these perspectives were brought together into one cohesive report.
To see our other work relating to Wales, including its 2024 Heat Strategy, click here. To explore how Regen’s whole-system expertise can help you navigate the evolving energy landscape, contact Ray Arrell.
The data used in each analysis is the most up-to-date available. However, with data for energy use and generation released at different times, the title change for the energy use reports switched from years to editions after the first release. It also meant that this year’s report – the first combined edition – uses data from two different years (2024 for generation and 2023 for use), as this was the most recent release of information.
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