Distribution Future Energy Scenarios

To meet the UK’s carbon reduction targets, the energy system will undergo substantial change, from major wind, solar and energy storage projects down to heating and transport for individual households. In order to plan for this energy system evolution, Regen pioneered Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES).

Now an annual process for each Distribution System Operator (DSO), each DFES builds on the analysis and engagement undertaken over the previous years. The scenarios cover distribution-connected generation, storage and demand within NESO's Future Energy Scenarios (FES) framework.

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DSOs use the outputs of the DFES modelling to determine the potential impacts of new development on the distribution network, to provide an evidence base to support future network reinforcement and investment, and to identify opportunities for the use of non-network solutions such as storage and flexibility services.

For key low-carbon technologies, a more detailed, granular analysis is completed as part of the DFES assessment, producing street-level future scenario projections on the low voltage network, for electric vehicles and their chargers, heat pumps, rooftop solar and domestic battery storage.

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