The graph above shows the installed capacity (in MW) of electricity generation and battery storage technologies, and the number of EVs and heat pumps, at the end of 2024 against our DFES projections for these technologies from back in 2015.

Overall, we weren’t too far off. And the analysis reveals some interesting reflections on the progress we are seeing in each sector.

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For low-carbon technologies:

• The c.82,000 EVs in the South West in 2024 are well aligned with the more ambitious scenario views (Gone Green and Consumer Power). While the press coverage may not always show it, consumers have responded to battery technology improvements and widening EV market choices by switching to EVs at pace.
• Despite current consumer signals for an accelerated adoption of heat pumps across the UK being less clear, the uptake of c.38,000 heat pumps in the region in 2024 is also aligned to Gone Green, as the most ambitious scenario for heat pump uptake at the time. This may be a reflection of the South West having proportionally fewer homes and businesses connected to the gas network, meaning that heat pumps may be a more attractive proposition for off-gas, rural homes across the South West.
• The capacity of rooftop solar in the region reached 650 MW in 2024, which is notably above any of the scenario projections we estimated. This could reflect a culmination of outcomes for the solar sector, from reducing equipment and installation costs and increased interest in rooftop solar as a simpler option to contribute to decarbonisation and electricity cost savings for homes and business premises.

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For large-scale electricity generation and storage:

• The South West has a strong heritage of developing renewable energy projects, including through the early years of the Renewables Obligation (RO) and Feed-in Tariff (FiT) programmes. However, the installed capacity of onshore wind (328 MW) and large-scale solar PV (1.2 GW) in 2024, falls short of all of the scenario projections for these technologies from 2015.
  
  • For onshore wind, this is almost certainly a reflection of the de facto ban on onshore wind developments that was enacted by the Conservative government in the same year as the analysis (2015). It is well known that this has impacted onshore wind deployment across England, not just the South West. The lifting of this ban by the current UK government has reopened the market for new projects, but the wind industry’s return to England may not be a rapid development.
  • As discussed in our previous insight piece, part of the original driver for doing the first scenario study was the surge of applications for new solar and wind connections in the South West. The region has high renewable energy resources and saw an early adoption of renewable projects, but being largely rural it also has less significant transmission and distribution infrastructure. This has caused the South West to experience generation network constraints and connection challenges for a long time, which in turn has impacted the development of large generation, including solar farms.
• Grid-scale battery storage was a very nascent technology sector at the time of DFES 2015, with the first projects supported by Enhanced Frequency Response contracts not progressing until 2016/17. However, their significant expansion across GB has not only contributed to the need for NESO’s connections reform, but resulted in the installed capacity of distributed battery projects in 2024 (c.270 MW) not being far off our ambitious projections.

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The DFES analysis is updated annually for every licence area. This update considers the overarching changes to the FES framework, as well as other major policy and market shifts impacting the potential uptake of these technologies and more. Comparing projections from 10 years ago to actual deployment today is therefore of limited use. But it does reveal some of the material progress we have made, with deployment for some sectors aligning with a ‘Gone Green’ view of the energy system at a regional level at the time.

It also highlights some of the challenges that still remain and demonstrates the enduring impacts that policy decisions can have on the sector. As we progress the 2025 update of the DFES analysis and the tRESP pathways are brought together by NESO, it's important we ensure that strategic network planning processes are adaptive to sector and policy shifts and that we harness the opportunity for consistent and joined-up planning across GB.

For more information on this area of Regen's work, please contact Ray Arrell.

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