Clean power

Developing future scenarios for Northern Ireland Electricity Networks

Date
July 31, 2025

Regen has collaborated with Northern Ireland Electricity Networks to develop future scenarios for the country’s electricity distribution network. The projections outline credible future scenarios for potential changes in future electricity demand, generation and storage on the lower voltage distribution network that connects households and businesses to the higher voltage transmission network. This work involved engagement with key regional organisations to translate the policy, market and project development landscape in Northern Ireland into a dataset of network-facing capacity projections for the next 25 years.

Gruig Wind Farm in Northern Ireland. Image: Ballygally View Images

Our analysis for Northern Ireland Electricity Networks (NIE Networks) references the System Operator of Northern Ireland’s Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios (TES 2023) framework, which outlined four pathways to net zero energy across the island of Ireland. The distribution network planning scenarios developed by Regen make use of TES 2023 as the overarching scenario framework, with the same societal, technological and economic assumptions adopted.

These projections will support NIE Networks’ network planning and investment programmes as they enter the RP7 investment period (2025-2031).  

Our analysis shows that, by 2030, in Northern Ireland there could be between:

  • 220,000 and 360,000 electric vehicles on the road
  • 2.6 GW and 3.4 GW of distributed onshore wind and solar generation capacity
  • 500 MW and 750 MW of distributed thermal generation and battery storage capacity.

We’re pleased to have collaborated with NIE Networks to develop and publish these projections for Northern Ireland, building on the Distribution Future Energy Scenarios methodology that Regen has pioneered, developed and expanded with distribution network operators in Great Britain over the past 10 years.

To speak to us about our work in Northern Ireland and with electricity networks, contact Ray Arrell.

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