Project duration: August 2021 – January 2022

Project lead: Ray Arrell – Head of Technical Development

As part of Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN)’s future forecasting, network analysis and investment planning processes, Regen has been working with the SSEN team to deliver a number of Distribution Network Future Energy Scenario (DFES) assessments for the electricity distribution networks in the North of Scotland and Southern Central England licence areas.

The annual DFES assessments use National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios as the overarching framework, but develop a set of bottom-up, local evidence led projections which reflect the unique characteristics and development activity of SSEN’s network regions. The scenario projections model the potential increase of key electricity generation, storage and demand capacity that has connected, or will connect, to SSEN’s network in the period out to 2050.

The DFES process essentially helps SSEN to understand:

  • What technologies will connect/disconnect from their network out to 2050
  • How much installed capacity of each technology will connect
  • When this capacity will come online and begin supplying/consuming electricity
  • And where across SSEN’s licence areas these technologies will likely connect

SSEN uses the outputs of the DFES to determine the potential impacts on the distribution network, to provide an evidence base to support future network reinforcement and investment planning, and to identify opportunities for the use of non-network solutions such as storage and flexibility services. For key low carbon technologies, a more detailed, granular, analysis is completed as part of the DFES assessment, producing ‘below street level’ future scenario projections for electric vehicles (EVs), EV chargers, heat pumps, rooftop solar and – for the first time this year – domestic battery storage.

Across October Regen delivered a series of interactive engagement webinars outlining the overall thinking and approach to DFES analysis. The team used interactive software online polling platform – Mentimeter – to gauge views on the uptake of new or disruptive future energy technologies, testing some of the assumptions used in the DFES modelling and to explore some of the regional characteristics for the North of Scotland and Southern England regions that may align with, or diverge away from, national trends. You can view the recordings, download the presentation slides (with polling results) and the event briefing document below:

The results of the 2021 DFES analysis will be published in early 2022. You can download SSEN’s 2020 DFES reports here:

SSEN Distribution Future Energy Scenarios and Low Carbon Technology Analysis 2020

 

People on this project

Ray Arrell
Head of technical development
Ray leads Regen's technical development strategy, coordinating the development of the company's technical capabilities…
Bruce Bardsley
Energy analyst
Bruce is a new intern at Regen. He will be assisting the data analytics…
Johnny Gowdy
Director
Johnny is a director of Regen and leads the development of our advisory projects,…
Jonathan Lamont
Jonathan is a new addition to Regen fulfilling the role of graduate intern aiding…
Tamsyn Lonsdale-Smith
Energy analyst
Tamsyn is a new starter at Regen as an energy analyst intern and will…
Grace Millman
Energy analyst
Grace is an energy analyst at Regen delivering high quality research, analysis and energy…
Hannah Stanley
Events manager
Hannah is part of Regen’s events, membership and communication team to help keep our…
Rois Smith
Energy analyst intern
Rois joined Regen in September as a graduate analyst intern.  Rois read Geography at…
Joel Venn
Head analyst
As head analyst, Joel is responsible for leading and developing Regen’s analytical team, as…

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