As part of Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN)’s future forecasting, network analysis and investment planning processes, Regen has been working with the SSEN team to deliver a number of Distribution Network Future Energy Scenario (DFES) assessments for the electricity distribution networks in the North of Scotland and Southern Central England licence areas.

The annual DFES assessments use National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios as the overarching framework, but develop a set of bottom-up, local evidence led projections which reflect the unique characteristics and development activity of SSEN’s network regions. The scenario projections model the potential increase of key electricity generation, storage and demand capacity that has connected, or will connect, to SSEN’s network in the period out to 2050.

You can read the final reports for 2022 below.

SSEN DFES 2022 Southern England Report

Download the report offline here: https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/SSEN-DFES-2022-Southern-England-report.pdf

SSEN DFES 2022 North Of Scotland Report

Download the report offline here: https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/SSEN-DFES-2022-North-of-Scotland-report.pdf

What is DFES?

The DFES process essentially helps SSEN to understand:

  • What technologies will connect/disconnect from their network out to 2050
  • How much installed capacity of each technology will connect, under four future societal and technological scenarios
  • When this capacity could come online and begin supplying/consuming electricity
  • And where across SSEN’s licence areas these technologies will likely connect

SSEN uses the outputs of the DFES modelling to determine the potential impacts on the distribution network, to provide an evidence base to support future network reinforcement and investment, and to identify opportunities for the use of non-network solutions such as storage and flexibility services. For key low carbon technologies, a more detailed, granular, analysis is completed as part of the DFES assessment, producing ‘below street level’ future scenario projections on the low voltage network, for electric vehicles (EVs), EV chargers, heat pumps, rooftop solar and domestic battery storage.

How are stakeholders engaged? 

The DFES is heavily underpinned by input from local stakeholders. As part of this engagement, every year, Regen delivers a series of interactive webinars outlining the overall thinking and approach to DFES analysis. The team uses interactive software online polling platform – Mentimeter – to gauge views on the uptake of new or disruptive future energy technologies, testing some of the assumptions used in the DFES modelling and to explore some of the regional characteristics for the North of Scotland and Southern England regions that may align with, or diverge away from, national trends. You can view the recordings from the 2022 regional webinars below:

Previous DFES reports

Regen has been pioneering the DFES approach since 2015 and has worked with SSEN on their DFES studies since 2018/18.
You can find links to some of the previous reports produced with SSEN below.

To find out more about Regen’s DFES methodology – please contact Ray Arrell (rarrell@regen.co.uk)

People on this project

Jack Adkins
Senior Energy Analyst
As senior energy analyst, Jack applies his skills in analysis, Python, SQL and Machine…
Ray Arrell
Head of Future Energy Systems
Ray is part of the Regen senior management team, leading our work and strategic…
Bruce Bardsley
Associate
Bruce is an Associate of Regen. He has assisted the data analytics team in…
Tamsyn Lonsdale-Smith
Senior Energy Analyst
Tamsyn is a senior energy analyst interested in all things people and digital. She…
Hannah Stanley
Stakeholder Manager
Hannah first joined Regen in 2017 quickly becoming the events manager and leading the…
Joel Venn
Head Analyst
As head analyst, Joel is responsible for leading and developing Regen’s analytical team, as…

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