Project duration: Annual assessments from 2017 to present
Project leads:
Ray Arrell – Associate Director
Christine Chapter – Head of Delivery
Joel Venn – Head Analyst
As part of Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN)’s future forecasting, network analysis and investment planning processes, Regen has been working with the SSEN team to deliver a number of Distribution Network Future Energy Scenario (DFES) assessments for the electricity distribution networks in the North of Scotland and Southern Central England licence areas.
The annual DFES assessments use National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios as the overarching framework, but develop a set of bottom-up, local evidence led projections which reflect the unique characteristics and development activity of SSEN’s network regions. The scenario projections model the potential increase of key electricity generation, storage and demand capacity that has connected, or will connect, to SSEN’s network in the period out to 2050.
You can read the final reports for 2023 below.
SSEN DFES 2023 Southern England ReportDownload the report offline here: https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/SSEN-DFES-2023-Southern-England.pdf
SSEN DFES 2023 North of Scotland ReportDownload the report offline here: https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/SSEN-DFES-2023-North-of-Scotland.pdf
What is DFES?
The DFES process essentially helps SSEN to understand:
SSEN uses the outputs of the DFES modelling to determine the potential impacts on the distribution network, to provide an evidence base to support future network reinforcement and investment, and to identify opportunities for the use of non-network solutions such as storage and flexibility services. For key low carbon technologies, a more detailed, granular, analysis is completed as part of the DFES assessment, producing ‘below street level’ future scenario projections on the low voltage network, for electric vehicles (EVs), EV chargers, heat pumps, rooftop solar and domestic battery storage.
How are stakeholders engaged?
The DFES is heavily underpinned by input from local stakeholders. As part of this engagement, every year, Regen delivers a series of interactive webinars outlining the overall thinking and approach to DFES analysis. The team uses interactive software online polling platform – Mentimeter – to gauge views on the uptake of new or disruptive future energy technologies, testing some of the assumptions used in the DFES modelling and to explore some of the regional characteristics for the North of Scotland and Southern England regions that may align with, or diverge away from, national trends.
Previous DFES reports
Regen has been pioneering the DFES approach since 2015 and has worked with SSEN on their DFES studies since 2018/18.
You can find links to some of the previous reports produced with SSEN below.
To find out more about Regen’s DFES methodology – please contact Ray Arrell (rarrell@regen.co.uk)
