Project duration: February 2020 to October 2020

In May 2020, Western Power Distribution and Regen ran a series of consultation webinars on the Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) in each of the four Western Power Distribution licence areas.

Regen and WPD discussed the local factors influencing the development of electric vehicles, wind and solar farms, energy storage and low-carbon heat with over 200 stakeholders. These form an integral part of the WPD 2020 DFES project, which looks at the uptake and deployment of renewable and fossil fuel power generation, energy storage, low-carbon heat, and electric vehicles, as well as analysing planned housing developments. To read about the project in full click here.

A key part of this project is engagement and consultation with local stakeholders, from local government to developers, installers, and community energy groups. Feedback from these webinars will directly influence the models and assumptions that are made during this analysis, the results of which will be finalised in the autumn of 2020. Please see the attached document for information on the webinar agenda and briefing.

• South Wales – Tuesday 12 May
  • Read the stakeholder engagement summary report
• South West – Friday 15 May
  • Watch the session
  • Read the stakeholder engagement summary report
• East Midlands – Wednesday 20 May
  • Watch the session
  • Read the stakeholder engagement summary report
• West Midlands – Friday 22 May
  • Watch the session
  • Read the stakeholder engagement summary report

A preview of the West Midlands licence area stakeholder engagement report is shown below, the reports cover who attended the events, the results of the live questions, and a summary of how we are incorporating direct stakeholder feedback in the modelling for WPD DFES 2020.

Thanks to all those who attended.

You can view the project in full here. If you are interested in finding out more about our wider future energy scenarios work and this project, please contact Frankie Mayo or any of the analyst team at Regen.

As part of our distribution future energy scenarios (DFES) work, Regen have created Future Electricity Scenarios for Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN).

With 3.6 GW of distributed generation (of which 2.5 GW is renewable) already connected to their southern licence area, SSEN need to understand potential changes to demand on their network from the rapid changes in our electricity system.

In order to plan their networks and assess where they need to invest, all DNOs are now looking at scenarios for how demands on their networks may change at a local level. Regen is supporting this vital forward planning and has carried out DFES for all four Western Power Distribution licence areas, and UK Power Networks.

The approach of these studies is to look in detail at the local area, taking account of factors such as the energy resources, projects already in the pipeline and local planning policies. In SSEN’s southern  licence area ground-mounted solar has been the dominant decentralised generation technology.

Figure 3-3: Ground-mounted solar PV technically unconstrained areas for future projects. 

The analysis is the first step in a process for SSEN, who are using the data to identify areas of future potential network stress. They will then be using that information to understand how constraints might be best managed or alleviated over time to support more local generation, along with increasing electrification of heat and transport.

Using the framework of National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2018, the report presents a range of possible futures for the SSEN Southern licence areas electricity system up to 2032.

The four scenarios start from Community Renewables, a highly decentralised system that is on track to achieve the 80% reduction in carbon by 2050. This scenario quadruples rooftop solar installation and has around 20% of homes with heat pumps by 2032.

At the other end of the spectrum, a centralised slow growth system Steady Progression, sees continuing of the hiatus in decarbonisation along with increasing levels of air conditioning.

Figure 3-6: Total generation connections by 2032 in Community Renewables.

Key areas within the study include an assessment of electric vehicle growth and associated capacities and types of chargers in the region. In the highest scenarios, the area could see around 2 million EVs by 2032.

The study also includes a detailed analysis of planned strategic sites for new domestic and commercial developments to help SSEN understand where the planned 280,000 new homes might be built and what impact they may have.

The findings of the work are spelled out in a public report and SSEN are making the data available to stakeholders such as local authorities and LEPs.

The project was launched by Scottish and Southern Networks (SSEN) at a webinar on 15 February 2019.

To find out more about our Scenarios work, contact Joel Venn at jvenn@regen.co.uk

IWA is an independent think tank working to develop practical ideas and strategies to improve the economy, education, environment and health in Wales.

IWA’s Re-Energising Wales project will provide a practical blueprint to enable Wales to meet its projected energy demands entirely from renewable sources by 2035, resulting in an 80 per cent reduction in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.

Six separate work streams will come together to deliver the project. The aim is to create a plan which could be adopted by decision makers, to make Wales a net exporter of renewable energy.

Regen are completing work package 2 of the project, which aims to develop an energy portfolio/system case study for the Swansea Bay City Region to 2035. This whole energy system vision will maximise use of local renewable energy resource helping to enable the transition to a clean energy system in Wales.

The energy system model will consider:

• the aim to generate the equivalent of 100 per cent of the region’s net annual electricity consumption
• a target of 50g CO₂e/kWh of electricity consumed in the region by 2035
• the roll out of electric vehicles and decarbonisation of the transport network
• the use of smart and flexible energy technology (including energy storage and demand side response)
• the role of energy efficiency and the development of low carbon heat technology
• continued decentralisation of energy assets through local and community ownership.

Policy recommendations will be developed from the modelling analysis to outline how the region can encourage decarbonisation and decentralisation of the energy system and also highlight current barriers to this vision.

Final report can be found here.

Further details on the entire Re-energising Wales project are available here.

Led by: Johnny Gowdy

Contact: jgowdy@regen.co.uk