Regen has been working with National Grid Electricity Distribution since 2015 to deliver the annual Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) assessments to guide distribution network planning.
Project duration (2024 iteration): April 2024 – December 2024
Project lead: Grace Millman, Senior Energy Analyst
To meet the UK’s carbon reduction targets, the energy system will undergo substantial change, from major wind, solar and energy storage projects down to heating and transport for individual households. In order to plan for this energy system evolution, Regen and National Grid Electricity Distribution (NGED) have worked together since 2015 to produce annual Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) for each of NGED’s four licence areas. Now an annual process for each Distribution System Operator (DSO), each DFES builds on the analysis and engagement undertaken over the previous years.
The scenarios cover distribution-connected generation and storage, from solar and wind farms to gas-fired generation and batteries, alongside key sources of energy demand such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, new housing developments and hydrogen electrolysers, within the framework of the National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios (FES).
The DFES process helps NGED to understand:
NGED uses the outputs of the DFES modelling to determine the potential impacts of new development on the distribution network, to provide an evidence base to support future network reinforcement and investment, and to identify opportunities for the use of non-network solutions such as storage and flexibility services. For key low-carbon technologies, a more detailed, granular analysis is completed as part of the DFES assessment, producing street-level future scenario projections on the low voltage network, for electric vehicles (EVs), EV chargers, heat pumps, rooftop solar and domestic battery storage.
The DFES is heavily underpinned by input from local stakeholders. As part of this annual engagement, Regen delivers a series of interactive webinars outlining the overall thinking and approach to DFES analysis. The team uses interactive software online polling platform – Menti – to gauge views on the uptake of new or disruptive future energy technologies, testing some of the assumptions used in the DFES modelling and to explore some of the regional characteristics for the NGED licence areas that may align with, or diverge away from, national trends.
NGED and Regen are currently undertaking the 2024 iteration of the DFES which looks at a set of possible future scenarios for the uptake of key energy technologies out to 2050. Over the coming months, we will be engaging local authorities, regional decision-makers, project developers, asset owners, energy consumers, community energy groups and trade bodies to develop bottom-up, stakeholder-led regional future scenarios to inform NGED’s network planning and investment. You can sign up for the stakeholder consultation events here and reach out via email if you would like to part of our wider DFES engagement.
The outputs of our previous DFES analyses are published on National Grid’s website here.
Regen has been working with Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) to collate evidence on the future electricity load growth on the Outer Hebrides, Inner Hebrides and Orkney. This work will help SSEN to better understand what investment is needed in the islands’ electricity networks, including the subsea cables that connect them to the mainland.
Project duration: October 2023 – February 2024
Project lead: Becky Fowell, Energy Market Analyst
Within their RIIO-ED2 business plan, Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) identified the need to replace or strategically reinforce 15 subsea cables that currently connect various Scottish islands to the mainland. Funding for these cables is being explored through SSENs Hebrides and Orkney Whole System Uncertainty Mechanism (HOWSUM) programme of work, which is being assessed across 2024 and 2025.
The evidence cases for these island groups builds on Regen’s ongoing work to deliver SSEN’s annual Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) assessments for their North of Scotland licence area. They also build on a similar load growth assessment that Regen completed for the Isle of Wight, in SSEN’s Southern England licence area.
The evidence cases provide a summary of the existing electricity network and existing network constraints, alongside a summary of the potential future electricity load growth out to 2050, categorised by:
The work also provides insight into additional sources of future electricity load from industries that are not currently included within the DFES technology scope, such as:
This study is intended to support SSEN to identify future electricity needs across these Scottish Island groups. This will inform the network investment requirements to enable future uptake of renewable generation and low carbon technologies across the islands, allowing for both net zero and security of supply within the island groups.
SSEN have recently published documentations related to their HOWSUM (Hebrides and Orkney Whole System Uncertainty Mechanism) application on their website.
The evidence cases that Regen has provided for each island group can be found below.
Regen with LCP Delta to undertake an assessment of the role and benefits of long duration electricity storage (LDES) technologies on the GB power system.
Project duration: December 2022 – January 2024
Project lead: Ray Arrell, Associate Director
Regen, in partnership with LCP Delta, undertook a study for DESNZ looking at the role and benefits of varying levels of long duration electricity storage in the GB power system out to 2050.
Regen’s primary role was to engage LDES technology developers (many of whom were ESN members), to understand the capabilities, technical characteristics and operational roles that LDES could bring to the GB power system, to support and validate the assumptions in LCP Delta’s systemic modelling.
The culmination of this engagement and analysis, was a summarising report, published by DESNZ in January 2024:
This report concluded that:
Regen published a joint article with LCP Delta when the report was launched in January 2024, summarising the analysis.
This work led to the publication of an industry consultation on the policy framework to enable investment in long duration electricity storage, specifically including the introduction of a ‘cap and floor’ commercial mechanism: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/long-duration-electricity-storage-proposals-to-enable-investment
For more information on this project, please contact Ray Arrell.
Regen is working with UK Power Networks to assess the potential impact of battery storage development on their distribution networks in the Eastern, South Eastern and London licence areas.
Project duration: July – December 2023
Project lead: Ray Arrell, Head of Future Energy Systems
The commercial battery storage sector has significantly and rapidly grown over the past 8 years. From a handful of early-adopters seeking to participate in National Grid ESO’s Enhanced Frequency Response auctions in 2016/17, to the 10s of GW of prospective projects that are currently seeking grid connections across multiple voltage tiers across all areas of the UK.
Whilst a growing number of operational sites are now providing a range of services to the UK electricity system, the true scale of development and impact of battery storage capacity on our electricity networks, remains an area that DNOs and the transmission operators are looking to understand in more detail.
Off the back of Regen’s extensive experience in assessing battery pipelines through our DFES analysis and the management of the Electricity Storage Network, UK Power Networks (UKPN) has commissioned Regen to complete a battery storage impact assessment for their distribution network licence areas in the East and South East of England (including central London).
This impact assessment will include:
Regen/the ESN would welcome views from the battery storage sector (and beyond) to feed in to this impact assessment.
For more information on this project, please contact Ray Arrell.
Somerset Council commissioned Regen to develop a county-wide energy plan that would forge a roadmap to achieving its Climate Emergency Strategy objectives. It would identify investment projects and establish an evidence base for future partnerships and funding opportunities as well as set out how the council might work with community energy organisations, the private sector and other stakeholders to invest and grow renewable energy in Somerset.
Project duration: May 2023 – March 2024
Project lead: Tamsyn Lonsdale-Smith, Senior Energy Analyst
The Somerset Energy Investment Plan covers all of the geographic area of Somerset and addresses the Somerset Climate Emergency Strategy’s commitment to develop an energy strategy, which follows three key objectives:
The project involved several work packages, including a GIS database of renewable energy opportunities, an assessment of the Somerset energy system and associated emissions, and analysis of council-owned assets and locally owned renewable generation to benchmark against targets.
The second phase was to deliver an energy roadmap to reach net zero carbon goals out to 2030, 2040 and 2050. A review of policy commitments informed the development of a strategic low-carbon energy pathway that utilises local opportunity to reduce emissions in line with the council’s ambitious goals.
The project also included an economic benefits assessment that identifies investment projects and an evidence base for future partnerships and funding opportunities.
The final report was published at the end of March 2024.
Project duration: Annual assessments from 2017 to present
Project leads:
Ray Arrell – Associate Director
Christine Chapter – Head of Delivery
Joel Venn – Head Analyst
As part of Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN)’s future forecasting, network analysis and investment planning processes, Regen has been working with the SSEN team to deliver a number of Distribution Network Future Energy Scenario (DFES) assessments for the electricity distribution networks in the North of Scotland and Southern Central England licence areas.
The annual DFES assessments use National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios as the overarching framework, but develop a set of bottom-up, local evidence led projections which reflect the unique characteristics and development activity of SSEN’s network regions. The scenario projections model the potential increase of key electricity generation, storage and demand capacity that has connected, or will connect, to SSEN’s network in the period out to 2050.
You can read the final reports for 2023 below.
SSEN DFES 2023 Southern England ReportDownload the report offline here: https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/SSEN-DFES-2023-Southern-England.pdf
SSEN DFES 2023 North of Scotland ReportDownload the report offline here: https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/SSEN-DFES-2023-North-of-Scotland.pdf
What is DFES?
The DFES process essentially helps SSEN to understand:
SSEN uses the outputs of the DFES modelling to determine the potential impacts on the distribution network, to provide an evidence base to support future network reinforcement and investment, and to identify opportunities for the use of non-network solutions such as storage and flexibility services. For key low carbon technologies, a more detailed, granular, analysis is completed as part of the DFES assessment, producing ‘below street level’ future scenario projections on the low voltage network, for electric vehicles (EVs), EV chargers, heat pumps, rooftop solar and domestic battery storage.
How are stakeholders engaged?
The DFES is heavily underpinned by input from local stakeholders. As part of this engagement, every year, Regen delivers a series of interactive webinars outlining the overall thinking and approach to DFES analysis. The team uses interactive software online polling platform – Mentimeter – to gauge views on the uptake of new or disruptive future energy technologies, testing some of the assumptions used in the DFES modelling and to explore some of the regional characteristics for the North of Scotland and Southern England regions that may align with, or diverge away from, national trends.
Previous DFES reports
Regen has been pioneering the DFES approach since 2015 and has worked with SSEN on their DFES studies since 2018/18.
You can find links to some of the previous reports produced with SSEN below.
To find out more about Regen’s DFES methodology – please contact Ray Arrell (rarrell@regen.co.uk)
Regen has worked with Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) and the Isle of Wight Council to develop a load growth evidence case to enable investment in the island’s electricity network.
Project duration: May 2022 – June 2023
Project lead: Ray Arrell, Head of Future Energy Systems
The study’s core output was to provide a written evidence case report, to support SSEN’s business plan application to Ofgem, to unlock additional investment in the electricity network supplying/on the Isle of Wight. This investment will unlock capacity to enable the Isle of Wight’s future growth/aspirations to expand renewable generation, low carbon technology adoption, electrification of other sources of demand and wider net-zero ambitions.
The study built on the analysis and granular future scenario projections that Regen produced for SSEN’s Southern England licence area, through the latest edition of their Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) assessment: https://www.regen.co.uk/project/ssen-distribution-future-energy-scenarios/
In May 2023, Regen worked with Isle of Wight Council and SSEN to publish the summarising report for the electricity load growth analysis and evidence case for additional network investment:
For further information on this project, please contact Ray Arrell, Head of Future Energy Systems, rarrell@regen.co.uk
The energy transition requires an evolution of the energy system, the markets and actors that underpin it, and the behaviour of its consumers. The future of our energy system amounts to the product of how national policy materialises as regional and local outcomes.
Since 2015, Regen has been looking extensively at potential future energy pathways at a regional and local level, through pioneering and delivering Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) assessments for electricity and gas distribution networks. The DFES approach provides high granularity scenario forecasts focused on individual geographic licence areas, projecting the trajectories of energy generation (low carbon and fossil fuel), demand and storage technologies which are expected to connect to or disconnect from the GB distribution networks, out to 2050.
Through delivering these assessments, Regen has gained insight into the regional trends of the current fuel mix of our energy supply, the constantly evolving pipeline of established, new and emerging low-carbon technologies s at both a regional and neighborhood level.
The Regional Energy Scenarios Insight Series will therefore look to highlight some of the key findings, trends and potential outcomes we are seeing across the UK, including the development of marine energy generation, the scale of the solar and battery storage pipelines, a street-level view of the uptake of EV charging and the future regional potential for bioenergy.
Take a look at the insight blog and podcast below and watch this space for more.
Tidal energy is one of the most reliable and predictable sources of renewable energy. Taken together with wave energy and floating wind, tidal energy offers the UK the opportunity to diversify its generation of renewable power both geographically and technologically, helping build system resilience. In this blog, Grace Millman, lead analyst on Regen’s 2021 Distribution Future Energy Scenarios for Western Power Distribution, examines the ebbs and flows of tidal energy over the last few years, as well as the future of tidal energy in light of the latest government announcement that tidal stream would be awarded a £20m ring-fenced minima within AR4.
In this episode of Regen’s Transforming Energy podcast, Ray Arrell, head of technical development, and Bruce Bardsley, energy analyst, take an in-depth look at the UK energy storage pipeline.
This podcast was produced as part of the Electricity Storage Network (ESN) Annual Marketplace – find out more about the event here. If you’re not yet a member of the ESN, find out more about our work and how you can get involved here.
Project duration: August 2021 – March 2022
Project lead: Ray Arrell – Head of Technical Development
As part of Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN)’s future forecasting, network analysis and investment planning processes, Regen has been working with the SSEN team to deliver a number of Distribution Network Future Energy Scenario (DFES) assessments for the electricity distribution networks in the North of Scotland and Southern Central England licence areas.
The annual DFES assessments use National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios as the overarching framework, but develop a set of bottom-up, local evidence led projections which reflect the unique characteristics and development activity of SSEN’s network regions. The scenario projections model the potential increase of key electricity generation, storage and demand capacity that has connected, or will connect, to SSEN’s network in the period out to 2050.
The DFES process essentially helps SSEN to understand:
SSEN uses the outputs of the DFES to determine the potential impacts on the distribution network, to provide an evidence base to support future network reinforcement and investment planning, and to identify opportunities for the use of non-network solutions such as storage and flexibility services. For key low carbon technologies, a more detailed, granular, analysis is completed as part of the DFES assessment, producing ‘below street level’ future scenario projections for electric vehicles (EVs), EV chargers, heat pumps, rooftop solar and – for the first time this year – domestic battery storage.
Across October Regen delivered a series of interactive engagement webinars outlining the overall thinking and approach to DFES analysis. The team used interactive software online polling platform – Mentimeter – to gauge views on the uptake of new or disruptive future energy technologies, testing some of the assumptions used in the DFES modelling and to explore some of the regional characteristics for the North of Scotland and Southern England regions that may align with, or diverge away from, national trends. You can view the recordings, download the presentation slides (with polling results) and the event briefing document below:
The results of the 2021 DFES analysis were published on 7 March 2022. You can download the licence area reports here:
To find out more about Regen’s DFES methodology – please contact Ray Arrell (rarrell@regen.co.uk)
Project duration: May 2021 to July 2021
As part of this years distribution future energy scenarios we are hosting four webinars for local stakeholders in Western Power Distribution’s (WPD) licence areas to directly influence the models and assumptions that are made during the future energy analysis. The sessions will provide the opportunity to ask questions, answer some of ours, and learn how to access and use the data once published.
The sessions will be as follows, click through to book your place:
Project summary
To support WPD’s strategic network investment planning, Regen has been commissioned to undertake an analysis of various ‘future energy scenarios’ for the four WPD licence areas – the South West, South Wales, East Midlands, and West Midlands. The project builds on previous years of analysis looking at the uptake and deployment of renewable and fossil fuel power generation, energy storage, low carbon heat, electric vehicles and hydrogen electrolysis, as well as analysing planned new housing and commercial developments. The analysis of different net zero scenarios, informed by detailed contextual factors and local stakeholder feedback, will help WPD to plan strategically and invest appropriately in the electricity network.
Towards net zero
This analysis takes the annual National Grid ‘Future Energy Scenarios’ and assesses the deployment of the various technologies at a granular level for each licence area, as well as looking at the specific local factors such as local plans, renewable resources, agricultural land, socio-economic factors and public transport provision. Each local and regional area in Great Britain has unique characteristics and resources, therefore each will have their own levels of deployment of renewable and low carbon technologies as the UK aims to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
You can view the project in full here. If you are interested in finding out more about our wider future energy scenarios work and this project, please contact Jonty Haynes or any of the analyst team
Project duration: January 2021 – March 2021
Project lead: Jonty Haynes, senior analyst
Regen has worked alongside SSEN to undertake a high level scenario analysis of the impact of energy efficiency measures in SSEN’s Southern England and North of Scotland licence areas, expanding on the recently released 2020 edition of SSEN’s Distribution Future Energy Scenarios.
National scenarios, such as those produced by National Grid ESO and the Climate Change Committee (CCC), have a strong narrative around energy efficiency and its impact across all forms of energy consumption. There is a need to understand how these potential outcomes may look at a regional and local level, which this study aims to address. The analysis approach was necessarily high level, focusing on the impact of energy efficiency in terms of a demand reduction factor for the five major demand sources: domestic heat, domestic lighting and appliances, non-domestic heat, non-domestic lighting and appliances and industrial processes.
In the scenarios that achieve the UK and Scotland’s net zero targets, the majority of energy efficiency improvements were projected to occur by the early 2030s, particularly within the non-domestic sector, facilitating low carbon fuel switching and smart, flexible electricity consumption in the later 2030s and 2040s. The concentration of energy efficiency gains within a relatively short timeframe reflects the current slow uptake (also the focus on fuel poverty which tends enable latent demand), followed by a rapid sprint from 2025 to 2035 in order to meet the governments targets, and the 5th and 6th carbon budgets.
There is uncertainty over the level of demand reduction that can be achieved through energy efficiency, which is reflected in the range of scenario outcomes. The impact of energy efficiency was modelled using existing and proposed policies, current trends and abatement measures identified as commercially feasible. By 2035, the impact of energy efficiency on the current baseload electricity demand ranges from 7% to 29%, depending on the scenario.
Early demand reduction in the scenarios is driven by the non-domestic sector, with the expectation that private and public sector energy efficiency measures will be complete by the early 2030s in the net zero scenarios, as per the CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget. Domestic heat demand, in contrast, has historically proved more difficult to reduce through energy efficiency measures, and rollout occurs mainly in the later 2020s and 2030s. Across the scenarios, the impact of energy efficiency on non-domestic energy demand by 2030 was projected to be on average 50% higher than the impact on domestic heat demand.
The analysis was undertaken at the level of Electricity Supply Areas (ESAs), broadly primary substations. It showed that, while many aspects of energy efficiency are driven by national policy and trends, the local demand impact can vary significantly depending on the domestic, commercial and industrial building stock and demand sources present in each area.
In the Consumer Transformation scenario, in which the UK meets its energy efficiency targets such as those defined in the Clean Growth Strategy, the impact of energy efficiency on current electricity baseload reduction varied between 10% to 28% in 2035 between ESAs.
Across all scenarios, the energy efficiency reduction factor (%) on current baseload was less in city and town centres, which typically contain high proportions of office and retail buildings and better insulated dwellings, particularly flats and tenements. Conversely, rural and industry-dominated areas showed higher energy efficiency reduction factor potential, owing to typically less well insulated building stock and the higher potential for industrial buildings and processes to reduce energy demand, compared to office and retail premises. However, due to the concentration of electricity demand in urban areas, the absolute level of demand reduction is greater within urban and city areas, alongside locations with high levels of industrial demand.
The energy efficiency analysis was completed in March 2021, see our joint press release with SSEN here. It was an extension to the full Distribution Future Energy Scenarios completed for both SSEN licence areas launched in January 2021, see here.
The two licence area reports are available to view and download from our publications page here.
If you are interested in finding out more about this project with SSEN or our wider work in future energy scenarios, please contact Jonty Haynes.
Project duration: July 2020 – December 2020
Project lead: Ray Arrell, Head of Technical Development
Regen worked alongside Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) to undertake the 2020 edition of their Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) analysis for both the North of Scotland (SHEPD) and Southern England (SEPD) distribution network licence areas. As part of this project, Regen also refreshed the more granular Low Carbon Technology (LCT) study that Regen developed with SSEN towards the end of 2019, producing scenario projections for EVs, electricity fuelled heating technologies and domestic rooftop solar PV capacity to secondary substation and feeder level – the equivalent of street-level forecasts.
The DFES process provides SSEN with detailed scenario projections for the increase (or reduction) in the connected capacity of energy generation, storage, and disruptive demand technologies connecting to SSEN’s distribution network out to 2050. The analysis also includes projections for new housing and the increase in commercial and industrial developments.
This work forms part of SSEN’s network planning and investment appraisal process, with Regen’s DFES projection datasets and accompanying written reports allowing network planners and forecasting teams to model and analyse different future load scenarios on SSEN’s network. The DFES has also supported SSEN to develop an evidence base and input into SSEN’s business plan submission for the upcoming RIIO-ED2 price control period, with the SSEN team engaging local councils with scenario data for their specific local authority area.
Engagement with regional and local stakeholders is a core feature of DFES analysis. Regen teamed up with SSEN and the Energy Systems Catapult to deliver a series of interactive webinars across August and September, looking at the local area energy plans and future energy scenarios in both licence areas. A summary of these events and the Mentimeter slides (including results of some online polling conducted on the day) are available on our website, see: North of Scotland webinar (25 Aug) and Southern England webinars (3 & 8 Sep). Regen and SSEN also held a workshop with representatives from Scottish Government in November, seeking to reflect the energy and decarbonisation policy ambitions for North Scotland (including the recently published Climate Change Plan Update) in the North of Scotland licence area analysis.
The project also initiated a data and information exchange with all of the local authorities that sit within each of SSEN’s licence areas. This process enabled Regen and SSEN to understand the location and trajectories for the development of new housing and commercial developments, as well understanding the impacts of local energy strategies, initiatives, decarbonisation targets and climate change declarations, at a local level.
For both licence areas, the results showed a significant evolution of the electricity generation capacity connecting and operating on the distribution network out to 2050. The analysis also highlighted a significant increase in the capacity of commercial and domestic battery storage, as well as some 5 million electric vehicles and 2.5 million heat pumps connecting by 2050 in some scenarios.
The analysis for the DFES and LCT completed in December 2020 and was launched in mid January 2021, see our joint press release with SSEN here.
The two licence area reports are available to view and download from our publications page here.
If you are interested in finding out more about this project with SSEN or our wider work in future energy scenarios, please contact Ray Arrell.
